Tag Archives: oscar theories

Oscar Theory #11: Whoever Wins The BAFTA Gets The Oscar

When it comes to the acting awards at the year’s Oscars, it looks things could get very British. No, not because the world has gone mad over Prince William and Kate Middleton’s wedding. Because Brit Colin Firth looks like an almost shoe-in to win Best Actor for his performance in “The King’s Speech,” while his fellow countryman Christian Bale—who in all honesty, I didn’t realize was British until just a few weeks ago—is the favorite to win Best Supporting Actor. While we were too busy with the Super Bowl to watch the BAFTA Awards—that’s the British Academy of Film and Television Arts—maybe we should have been paying more attention. Back in 2000, the British award show moved to February so that it would it would precede the Oscars. Ever since, it has become like looking in a crystal ball. Last year, 12 of the 18 major BAFTA winners went on to win Oscars. [EW]

The predictive powers of the BAFTAs get even more impressive when you limit it to the top six categories—Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Supporting Actress. I crunched the numbers and, over the past few years, 80 percent of the winners have overlapped. After the jump, take a look at the BAFTA effect played out in the past few years, and what it could mean for this year’s Oscar hopefuls. Keep reading »

Oscar Theory #10: The Academy Loves A Crazy Female Character

I’m not sure exactly how time is passing so quickly, but we are now only nine days away from the Oscars. To be clear—that’s one week and two days. As the big day creeps closer and closer, people seem to be feeling more confident that Natalie Portman will win Best Actress for her ballerina-gone-loco turn in “Black Swan.” Why? Well, because she won both the Golden Globe and the SAG awards for the role. Also, she’s pregnant and that often bodes well for Oscar contenders. Plus, as Newsweek so delicately put it in headline a few weeks ago: “Want to Win an Oscar? Play a Crazy Chick.”

Last week, we looked at a theory—that the Academy favors actors who take on real life roles—that could predict who will win for Best Actor this year. Today, let’s look at the off-their-rocker roles that have garnered Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress wins. Keep reading »

Oscar Theory #9: Play A Real Person, Win A Statue

T-minus 18 days until the Oscars and, of course, we are all starting to place bets on who we think will walk away with little golden men this year. Luckily, the Academy has proven itself to be pretty darn predictable over the years. If you’re America’s Sweetheart, you’ll probably win Best Actress. If you sings in a flick, you are almost guaranteed Oscar gold. But there’s another trend we’ve been noticing lately: the winners for Best Actress and Best Actor tend to be the person who’s taken on the based-on-a-true-story role. In fact, 10 of the 20 top honors given in the 2000s went to actors who portrayed real people. Let’s take a look, shall we? Keep reading »

Oscar Theory # 8: The Pregnant Woman Often Wins. Will This Help Natalie Portman?

Commence the countdown to the Oscars: there are 59 days until February 27, when James Franco and Anne Hathaway will show us if they were the right picks to host the 2010 Academy Awards. And though the awards show is two months away, people are already speculating about who will walk away with a golden little man this year.
Keep reading »

Kate Winslet And Sam Mendes Split, Proving Our Oscar Theory Right

Ugh. I hate to say it, but we called it. Oscar winner Kate Winslet and her husband, director Sam Mendes, have announced that they’ve split. As you may recall, we hypothesized that a woman winning the Best Actress Oscar is almost certainly the kiss of death for her romantic relationship — Kate Winslet, who won for her work in “The Reader,” was the only example in recent years of this theory not proving true. Until now, that is. Sadz. Sometimes we hate it when we’re right. [LA Times] Keep reading »

Did Our Oscar Theories Hold Any Water?

Fine, so you didn’t exactly need a functioning crystal ball to predict last night’s big Oscar winners. Christoph Waltz won for Best Supporting Actor for “Inglourious Basterds,” Mo’Nique won Best Supporting Actress for “Precious,” Jeff Bridges won Best Actor for “Crazy Heart,” and Sandra Bullock won Best Actress for “The Blind Side.” They were the exact same four to walk to the podium for both the Golden Globes and the Screen Actors Guild Awards, too. Best Picture was a semi toss-up—”Avatar” had won at the Golden Globes, while “The Hurt Locker” had cleaned up at other less mainstream awards shows—and volume ended up being the better predictor, as “The Hurt Locker” was the ultimate victor last night. Honestly, the only true surprise of the evening was in the Best Foreign Language Film category, where the Oscar was expected to go to “Un Prophete” or “The White Ribbon,” but instead “El Secreto de Sus Ojos” pulled off the upset.

So how did we at The Frisky fare with our predictions? A breakdown after the jump. Keep reading »

Oscar Theory #6: A Great Name Will Win Ya Best Picture

Guessing who will win the major awards at Sunday night’s Oscars is hardly like picking winning lottery numbers. The Academy tends to be pretty predictable: Best Actress generally goes to America’s Sweetheart (who later gets divorced); Best Actor goes to the guy with the most previous nominations; Best Supporting Actress goes to a breakout star; and Best Supporting Actor goes to the creepy guy. But there’s one category that’s almost impossible to predict—Best Picture. Since 1944, the Academy has nominated five films for the top honor, but this year—after extended debate about how comedies, musicals, animated flicks, and blockbusters get shafted with the limited pickings—the Academy opted to nominate 10 films for Best Picture. So in many ways, it’s anyone’s game on Sunday. Keep reading »

Oscar Theory #5: Win Best Actress, Get Divorced

Over the past nine years, a slightly disturbing trend has emerged for whoever ascends the stage, teary-eyed, to collect the Best Actress statue. Almost all the winners in this time period have gotten divorced, or called off super long-term relationships that seemed to have no expiration date. And none of these breakups were exactly amicable. Keep reading »

Oscar Theory #4: Best Supporting Actor Goes To … The Creepy Guy

The way I see it, this year’s Best Supporting Actor race is between two actors—Christoph Waltz, who won both the SAG and Golden Globe for his role in “Inglourious Basterds,” and Stanley Tucci, who was the one good part of the fairly universally panned “The Lovely Bones.” Why these two? Because the characters on screen gave the viewers the heebie-jeebies. See, the Academy has shown itself to be fairly predictable over time. For Best Actress, the Academy loves America’s Sweethearts. For Best Actor, they tend to vote for the guy who’s been nominated the most times. For Best Supporting Actress, they like an out-of-nowhere star. But for Best Supporting Actor, nothing wracks up the votes like playing an exceptionally creepy character. Let’s take a look how the Creepy Effect has played out in the past, and what it could mean in this year’s race. Keep reading »

Oscar Theory #3: The Out-Of-Nowhere Star Gets Best Supporting Actress

Let’s play Oscar psychic for a minute, OK? I have a pretty good idea of who is going to win this year’s Best Supporting Actress Award. My crystal ball says Mo’Nique—and not just because she won both the Golden Globe and SAG awards. See, the Academy is pretty darn predictable on who they decide to bestow with their gold-plated paperweights. For Best Actress they tend to go with America’s Sweetheart and for Best Actor they pick the guy with the most nominations under his belt already. But something very interesting happens in the Best Supporting Actress category. The Academy generally favors actresses who are fresh out of the gate—who are making their movie debut, or who landed their first big role. In other words, they like the Breakthrough Star.

Let’s take a stroll down the Best Supporting Actress memory lane. Keep reading »

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