Could Trump still win the presidency at this point? Here’s how likely he is to succeed
Following the release of 2005 tapes featuring Donald Trump boasting about sexual assault, a good amount of pundits went ahead and declared the race for Hillary Clinton, pointing out how Trump had essentially lost the vote of every woman and human being with a conscience. And anyone who knows how Trump operates can see the GOP nominee pretty much knows it’s a wrap too. He’s not admitting it, obviously, but he’s declaring everything is rigged as a preemptive defense mechanism to soften the blow of his apparently inevitably defeat come Nov. 8. That being said, could Trump still win the election? To celebrate dodging the apocalypse too early would be an awful, painful mistake to make, so let’s examine.
There are a couple ways to look at this, because national polls don’t matter near as much as specific states do, given our nation’s electoral college system. Statistical analysis outlets like FiveThirtyEight and news entities like The New York Times offer forecasts that look at a variety of factors, and namely assess numbers from critical battleground states, where the race is really competitive, all kinds of state-by-state estimates, and the statistical likelihood of one overall outcome or another.
The New York Times currently estimates Clinton has a 92 percent chance of coming out on top; FiveThirtyEight estimate is just a hair less solid, putting that number at 87.6 percent.
The key is to look at battleground states like Nevada, North Carolina, and Ohio, as opposed to the deeply partisan likes of California or Florida. CNN notes that polling in these states from earlier this week is still uncomfortably tight. In Nevada, 46 percent of likely voters say they back Clinton, just 2 percent more than Trump’s 44 percent. North Carolina’s voters are pretty evenly split too, with Clinton holding 48 percent of likely voters to Trump’s 47 percent. Meanwhile, Trump maintains a small lead in Ohio at 48 percent to Clinton’s 44 percent.
But just because it’s still anyone’s game within some states doesn’t at all mean it’s anyone’s game in the nation at large. Recent polling by Monmouth, for the first time since the 2005 tapes leaked, also indicates Trump has lost substantial ground among a crucial base: young men.
Back in September, Trump had a 44 to 29 percent lead among male voters under 50 years old. Clinton has since reversed this and seized a staggering 53 to 30 percent lead. You don’t have to be a woman, or even a father or husband as the ages of this demographic suggest, to realize that regarding women as objects wealthy men can “do anything” to is deeply, maddeningly fucked up. And frankly, so are all Trump’s other comments on Mexicans, Muslims, and African-Americans, but apparently, this 2005 leaked tape was all it took at the end of the day.
An average of national polls finds Clinton with her most sizable lead yet at 7 points, and some national polls show her with a lead as big as 11 points. Is Trump going to lose every single state? Unfortunately, no. But is he going to lose? Probably.
There is one slight hitch to this glorious sense of inevitability, though. The sense of inevitability itself can hold back some people from voting or give them the sense of safety to vote third party. The solution is to never shrug off your vote and assume it doesn’t matter because the outcome already appears to be set in stone. Things could turn out disastrously if everyone were to share that mentality.