Who Will Win “Big Brother 15″? (Spoilers Ahead!)

Sigh. Tonight, after three long (beautiful, obsessive, mindblowing) months (spent watching livefeeds 24/7), “Big Brother” will crown the winner of its 15th season, awarding either GinaMarie Zimmerman (the Staten Island native who lost her job within the first few weeks for using racist language in the house), Spencer Clawson (the “redneck” from Arkansas, who made headlines for making a questionable pedophile joke on camera), or Andy Herren (a part-time college instructor, who is gay) with the $500,000 prize. Before that, the two finalists who won the first and second rounds of the final Head of Household competition will compete in the third round; whoever comes out victorious will choose who they want to sit next to in the final two, sending the last person to the jury. The jury will decide the winner. So, after watching the live feeds incessantly, who do I think will and should win the “most controversial” season of “Big Brother”? My thoughts, after the jump! (SPOILER ALERT: I reveal who won part one and part two of the HOH competition, so don’t click on unless you want to know.)

GinaMarie, bunk foot and all, managed to win the endurance competition in round one, which means she got to skip the second HOH round and proceeds directly to the third round, which will occur live tonight. Andy won the second HOH round against Spencer, which means he’ll square off against GM. Tonight’s third round of the HOH comp should be, if BB continues with tradition, a true or false comp about what the jury had to say about their time in the house. But it might not actually matter who wins tonight’s final HOH round, as I’m pretty sure Andy and GM will take each other to the finals no matter what.

Though I’ve been watching the live feeds less and less these last few weeks — it’s just so boring now — GM and Andy seem sincere in their promises to take each other to the end, though they’re both giving Spencer the same guarantee. It would be smarter for either of them to take Spencer to the final two, if you ask me, as I don’t think he has a shot in hell of winning. Spencer may have been on the block a record-breaking TK times, he’s also floated the entire season and has made no big strategic moves (unless you count hitching his cart to the ridiculous “Exterminators” alliance), especially in comparison to Andy and GM. If he makes it to the final two, he’ll get second place.

Andy versus GM would certainly make for a more exciting final two. I’m no GinaMarie fan, but aside from her conflicts with Candice, she played a solid social game; her off-color remarks were, I think, viewed by many of the houseguests as “harmless” or the result of her lack of intelligence, and won’t be held against her by many members of the jury. Plus, she was responsible for taking out the season’s best player by far, Amanda.

But GinaMarie could not have done that without Andy, who turned his back on his longtime alliance with Amanda (and McCrae) at just the right time. Amanda often drowned out her fellow alliance members, but trust that Andy was integral to many of the big strategic moves they made throughout the game. Andy is a backstabber, no doubt, but a precise one. I imagine his gameplay has the respect of many of the jury members, even the ones he was directly responsible for evicting.

So, here’s how I think tonight will go down: Andy will win the final HOH. Unless something changes in his interactions with Spencer and GM today — or the questions they answer tonight make it clear that it would be infinitely smarter to take Spencer to the final two — Andy will take GM to the finals, evicting Spencer. I believe Andy has a few votes locked up, and I would be very shocked if the following jury members didn’t vote for him to win: Amanda, McCrae, Elissa, Candice and Helen. I don’t know that GM has any votes that are a lock, but the remaining four jury members — Jessie, Judd, Aaryn, Spencer — are a toss up. If she gets all four of them, and I’m wrong about one of Andy’s votes, she could win. But I doubt it. GM’s best shot is winning the final HOH (not impossible) and taking Spencer to the final two.

That, of course, is exactly what CBS does not want to happen. After all, GinaMarie referred to welfare as “n***er insurance” and made countless other racially insensitive remarks over the course of the season. Spencer is no peach either. I don’t know that CBS would be stoked to have a guy who spent the majority of the summer ogling the female houseguests and talking incessantly about pussy as the winner of their beloved show. Seeing Andy win “Big Brother 15″ is certainly what production would like to see occur tonight. While he’s caught some flack for using the word “cunt” a lot on the livefeeds, but, for the most part, he has been one of the nicest, most well-spoken and respectful player in a house full of shitbirds. He deserves the win in every way.

Other reasons to watch tonight?

  • To see how the houseguests react when Elissa wins America’s Favorite Player. She’s practically a shoo-in but nearly every houseguest thinks she’s a crazy robot and has vowed to freak out if she wins.
  • To find out what’s really going on with McCrae and Amanda now that the show is over. Will their showmance continue into the real world?
  • To witness GinaMarie and Nick Uhas’s first time seeing each other since he was evicted the second week. She has spent the whole summer talking about him like he’s her future husband.

I’ll be livetweeting the finale tonight from my Twitter account — @xoamelia — so follow me if you’re a BB nerd! The show starts at 9:30 p.m. EST!